[Term Entry]: Add Hypothesis

content/uiux/concepts/hypothesis/hypothesis.md

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+---
+Title: 'Hypothesis'
+Description: 'Hypothesis defines a testable statement used to predict user behavior and guide UX research.'
+Subjects:
+  - 'Web Design'
+Tags:
+  - 'UX'
+  - 'Research'
+  - 'Design Thinking'
+CatalogContent:
+  - 'intro-to-ui-ux'
+  - 'paths/front-end-engineer-career-path'
+---
+
+## What Is a Hypothesis in UX?
+
+A **hypothesis** in UX design is a testable statement about how a change to a product or experience will affect user behavior or outcomes. It is typically based on existing data, user feedback, or assumptions that can be validated through testing and observation.
+
+Rather than designing based on intuition or opinion, UX practitioners use hypotheses to define what they believe will happen and why — and then verify it with real users.
+
+A typical format looks like:
+
+> _"We believe that [this design change] for [this user group] will result in [this outcome], because [this reason or assumption]."_
+
+For example:
+
+> _"We believe that adding a progress bar to the sign-up process for first-time users will increase task completion, because users will know how many steps remain."_
+
+## Why Hypotheses Matter in UX
+
+Hypotheses bring clarity and purpose to design work. They turn abstract ideas into testable predictions and keep teams focused on solving real user problems.
+
+Key reasons to use hypotheses in UX:
+
+- _Encourages evidence-based decision making._
+  Grounding ideas in testable statements reduces guesswork and helps eliminate design bias.
+
+- _Aligns cross-functional teams._
+  A shared hypothesis helps designers, researchers, and developers collaborate around measurable goals.
+
+- _Reduces time and resource waste._
+  Testing assumptions early can prevent over-investing in solutions that don't deliver real value.
+
+- _Strengthens learning loops._
+  Whether proven true or false, every hypothesis leads to insights that inform better design decisions.
+
+## When to Use a Hypothesis
+
+Hypotheses are valuable at various stages of the UX and product development process:
+
+- _During discovery and ideation_ — When identifying user pain points and proposing solutions.
+- _Before usability tests_ — To clarify what you expect users to do and why.
+- _In A/B or multivariate testing_ — To compare performance between different versions of a design.
+- _While launching MVPs or experiments_ — To validate core assumptions before scaling.
+
+If you're making a change and want to know whether it improves the user experience, you're in a good place to write a hypothesis.
+
+## Where Hypotheses Fit in the UX Process
+
+Hypotheses are not just for researchers — they can inform the work of:
+
+- _UX designers_ — When creating flows, interfaces, or layouts that aim to solve specific user problems.
+- _UX writers_ — When testing how different messaging affects user comprehension or action.
+- _Product managers_ — When setting success criteria for features or releases.
+- _Developers and engineers_ — When experimenting with performance optimizations or interface patterns.
+
+They typically appear at the start of an experiment or test cycle, are reviewed during analysis, and help shape design iterations.
+
+## How to Write a Strong UX Hypothesis
+
+To write an effective hypothesis:
+
+- _Be specific about the change and the user group._  
+  Avoid vague phrases like "improve the design" or "make it better."
+
+- _Include a measurable outcome._  
+  This could be a behavior (e.g. "increase sign-ups") or a metric (e.g. "reduce time on task").
+
+- _Provide a rationale._  
+  Explain _why_ you believe the change will lead to the desired outcome — ideally based on user research or previous observations.
+
+- _Keep it testable._  
+  If you can't validate or invalidate the statement with research or data, it's not a good hypothesis.
+
+- _Use plain language._  
+  Hypotheses should be easy for stakeholders of all backgrounds to understand and engage with.
+
+## Example Hypotheses
+
+Here are a few examples:
+
+- _We believe that simplifying the navigation for mobile users will reduce bounce rates because users currently struggle to find key pages._
+- _We believe that showing delivery estimates on product pages will increase conversion because users are more likely to buy when they know how long shipping takes._
+- _We believe that onboarding tooltips will improve feature adoption for new users because they provide immediate guidance at the point of need._
+
+## Limitations of Hypotheses in UX
+
+While powerful, hypotheses aren't foolproof:
+
+- They rely on initial assumptions, which can be flawed.
+- Poorly written hypotheses can mislead rather than guide.
+- Focusing too much on validating ideas can slow down experimentation and discovery.
+- Not every design change needs a formal hypothesis — balance is key.
+
+Use hypotheses as _tools for learning_, not rigid rules.